Back to Drew's Views
December 10, 2019
Previous
Next

122 year Dow Jones Histogram: Putting 2017 into context

Markets

2017 was a pretty good year for the stock market.  The 19th best since the Dow Jones Average was introduced in 1896.

This decade hasn’t been bad either.  We haven’t had a down year.  This has never happened in a full decade before.  That being said, we shouldn’t fall in to the trap of believing in some sort of mythical mean reversion in 2018 or 2019.  We may not have a down year this decade.

Nearly 70% of the time, the stock market has moved higher; and the average “up year” has been better (+20%) than the average “down year” has been bad (-15%).  At least that’s the way the last 122 years have gone.  If this history is a guide (yes, a big if) the likelihood that we finish out the decade with ten consecutive up years is about 50/50.

For what it is worth, the decade-to-date returns only rank fourth out of 12+ decades of the Dow.  We’ll see what the next two years bring as we finish this one out, but – at least looking backward – it hasn’t been a terrible idea to be long the US stock market over the past four decades.  It might not be terrible for the next four either.

Dow Histogram.jpg



Subscribe and sign up with your email address to receive the latest news and updates
Thank you! Your submission has been received!
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.

FOOTNOTES

Download PDF

Topics

Markets

DISCLAIMER

The views and opinions expressed in this post are those of the post’s author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Albert Bridge Capital, or its affiliates. This post has been provided solely for information purposes and does not constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer or any advice or recommendation to purchase any securities or other financial instruments and may not be construed as such. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy or completeness of any information in this post or found by following any link in this post.

YOU MIGHT ALSO LIKE

Text Link

Heading

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Suspendisse varius enim in eros elementum tristique. Duis cursus, mi quis viverra ornare, eros dolor interdum nulla, ut commodo diam libero vitae erat. Aenean faucibus nibh et justo cursus id rutrum lorem imperdiet. Nunc ut sem vitae risus tristique posuere.

Text Link
Text Link

The Albert Bridge Factory

Define your process, and follow it, but don't completely ignore the regime we are in.

Markets
Stock Picking
Portfolio Management
Behavioral Finance
Asset Pricing
Read More
Text Link

Stock Market History, Illuminated, 2022 Style

I’ve been keeping a graphic of the long-term performance of the US stock market for many years now, and I’ve been sharing this information in the histogram below. I think it does a reasonable job of revealing how long-term returns are manufactured and the tilts over time. I’ve color-chunked the data by decade to highlight decades of historical weakness as well as periods of strength. I’ve also added additional tables and charts which I think are interesting, and in some cases, stunning.

Asset Pricing
Factors
Markets
Valuation
Read More
Text Link

What Stands in the Way Becomes the Way

I don’t think that Aurelius, Frost or Zweig would disagree that the road less traveled might have a little more alpha in it.

Markets
Behavioral Finance
Stock Picking
Read More
Text Link

For Investors, a "Never-Sell" Mantra is a Song for Fools

On the misleading claims of Hendrik Bessembinder about diversification; and the convenient, post-hoc, and the spurious conclusion to always buy and hold.

Asset Pricing
Markets
Portfolio Management
Stock Picking
Read More
Text Link

A Conversation between Drew Dickson and Morgan Housel

A discussion between Drew Dickson of Albert Bridge Capital, Morgan Housel of The Collaborative Fund; moderated by Jamie Catherwood of O'Shaughnessy Asset Management

Asset Pricing
Behavioral Finance
Markets
Read More
Text Link

Conversation with Dr. Daniel Crosby on his Standard Deviations Podcast

Drew joins Dr. Daniel Crosby on the Standard Deviations podcast.

Asset Pricing
Behavioral Finance
Markets
Sports
Read More
Navigations
HomeTeamDrew's viewsPressContact
Disclaimers
Legal & regulatoryPrivacy policyCookies policy
How to get in Touch
info@albertbridgecapital.com

Subscribe to Drew's Views

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
Thank you! Your submission has been received!
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.
© Albert Bridge Capital 2022
Website by SW10media.com
homeTeamdrew's viewspressCOntactDisclaimers