Drew's Views

Insights from the CIO of Albert Bridge Capital

Valuation

Do Short Term Flows Permanently Affect Share Prices?

I’d like to think that prices can get out of whack for some period of time, and in that window, the nimble, unbiased, fundamental stock picker can take advantage of overreactions and underreactions. If they don't, then the M&M propositions truly hold, and I don’t have a meaningful job. However, if this paper is right, and it is only flows that matter, then while the M&M theorems are overturned, I don't have a meaningful job either. If it is all about flows, then I shouldn't play the game.
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Just How Cheap is Europe vs. the US, and Should it Be?

As it turns out, it isn’t that the people are paying a bigger growth premium for US Growth over European Growth; but instead it is that people are paying a (much) bigger multiple for US Value than for European Value.
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Rumpelstiltskin and Meme Stock Investing

“What sort of sorcery is this?” Is this financial alchemy powering a perpetual motion engine that will result in higher and higher share prices?
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It's All About the Fundies

It wasn’t passive flows that mattered. It wasn’t interest rates that mattered. It wasn’t the multiple that mattered. It wasn’t an ever-expanding infectious narrative that mattered. No analyst on the buy or sell side came remotely close to understand the market opportunity, the share, the profitability. It was about better vision, modelling. and analysis. It was all about the fundies.
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A Memo to Investors

I know, these are weird and trying times. It all makes you wonder what the point of stock-picking is. What is the purpose of kicking the tires, looking under the hood, and doing our jobs?
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Was “Value” Just a Hot Hand Thing?

In 1861, at the outset of the Civil War in the United States, Union Pacific issued 20 shares in its IPO.
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The Times that Try Stock-Pickers’ Souls

On first principles, there is one way to generate excess stock market returns over the long term, and it isn’t to “own winners at any price.”
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A New Ice Age?

I’ll spend $3 at the 7-11 for a bag of ice, and drop it in a cooler. I really like ice.
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Grandpa Stocks

There are young companies out there that are exciting, growing quickly, and very clearly have the world in front of them.
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Ben Graham the Growth Investor?

We’re all for debunking myths, and given the performance of growth stocks recently, we’re making a pre-emptive strike in defense of the father of value investing.
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The DCF is the Randy Watson of Valuation

I’m not very well-rounded. I studied finance in college, and finance in business school.
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Keeping Calm and Carrying On

October unleashed a storm upon financial markets.
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Factor Timing, Should You Try?

These are our two cents on whether you, or we, or anyone else can pick the perfect time.
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Build a Bear?

Imagine every adult has 10% of their savings invested in “the global stock market”,
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We’re all Value Investors

Imagine two scenarios.
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Peak Quality?

Mr. Market has been increasingly attracted to and enamoured by the concept of “quality” investing. So, let’s explore it.
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Unwarrented

Evidently, the closest thing we in financial markets have to Albert Einstein or Winston Churchill, is Warren Buffett.
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Still Superman, but without the cape

I have immense respect for Bob Shiller.
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Pegs, P/E'S and the Value Premium

Several years ago, we did an analysis of companies starting with a specific starting growth rate, and assumed that they would do a straight-line ten-year fade to a growth rate equalling inflation.
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Secular Winners and Value Investing

There are very few growth investors that stayed in business long enough to become a household name in the investment community, and even less of them that ended up writing books about their lifetime experiences.
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