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November 20, 2020
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Avengers Assemble!

Markets
Stock Picking

Amazon is, very simply, a tremendous company.  Google is also a tremendous company.  The same goes for Microsoft, Apple, Netflix, and Facebook.  These are the superheroes of capital markets.  In these FAMANG stocks, the Avengers have assembled.

And the market knows it, shoveling hard-earned dollars into these great businesses for many years; and it’s worked out very well for both the companies, and the investors supporting them.  Just over a decade ago, at the end of 2009, Facebook wasn’t even listed yet, but they had just done a valuation round at $9 billion.  Since then it has 85-bagged to $778 billion.  Netflix is pretty close, with investors (those there for the whole ride) making 70x on their investment.  All told the aggregate market cap of these FAMANG names during this period has gone from less than $730 billion to over $7.3 trillion.

And this last year has been the best of all.  Here in 2020, when the pandemic has ground global economies to a halt, the FAMANGs have experienced a $2.3 trillion increase in what Mr. Market believes they are worth.

Moreover, the FAMANGs aren’t the only ones with corporate superpowers.  From the extremely controversial (e.g. Tesla, market cap $470 billion) to the relatively steady (Nvidia, $330 billion) to the Chinese guys (Alibaba, $700 billion; and Tencent, $720 billion) to a host of others in between. The outperformance of all these names has been nothing short of astonishing.

And you will find few reasonable observers that don’t believe that each of these businesses is a game-changer in its own right. Each of these companies (and their founders and or CEOs) have built something wonderful.

Thus, since they are not just good, but tremendous companies, it simply doesn’t matter what price you pay for them.  In fact, you should only own these types of businesses because they will surprise you with positives that even the wildest bulls don’t initially expect (e.g. AWS at Amazon, Android at Google).  Meanwhile, they are fun to discuss with your friends who own the same stocks, all of you sharing the same responsible time horizon of at least ten years, so that even during bouts of temporary volatility none of you will be laughed at (or get fired) for owning winners.  Consequently, the price you pay for them today simply does not matter. These winners  have changed the game, and consequently it’s Ragnarök for the Gods of Value.

That’s the end of this blog post.  

Okay, it’s not the end of the blog post.  But surely at least a few of you read that paragraph above and nodded agreeingly.   While others – others like us – read it and laughed out loud (or got sick).  

I get it, for those who have been picking stocks, if your career in the industry (or personal investing) started after 2009, it is hard to imagine any world where good stocks just don’t go up, or where every sell-off is an opportunity.  If you questioned this mantra at any point during your career, you were crushed.  You were crushed shorting Netflix.  You were crushed shorting Tesla.  At some firms, you may even have been crushed for not owning them.  

And it frankly has been the right way to be.  It’s made sense, certainly from an outcome perspective.  And while people (ourselves included) can go on and on about process vs. outcome thing and belittle those who we deem “lucky”, the fact of the matter is that none of us get to simulate half a million rolls of the dice, and trust that our lives will work out like the average.  We get one shot at a career.  Maybe two.  Maybe even three.  But not half a million.  If you are 24-36 years old, and you’ve owned the FAMANGs for 2-12 years you’ve not only been on the right side of history, you’ve probably had a pretty nice career, and have a house a lot bigger than the one you grew up in.

I can do this all day.

Then there are those of use who were baptized in the crash of 1987 , or who covered tech stocks at the world’s largest asset manager from 1999-2001, or who launched their hedge fund in 2008, three months before the GFC.  There are some of us who may even be all three of those people.

For that guy, it is very, very hard not to miss the growth mo boat.  Sure, he might own NFLX briefly when he thinks there was an overreaction to temporarily poor international sub growth.  He might own FB for a little while after the consensus investor temporarily dismisses the advertising TAM and punishes a quarter too severely.  He might have owned MSFT when it had a high cash flow yield and low P/E (and it did, btw, under 8x in parts of 2011 and 2012). But he didn’t buy and hold. He didn’t HODL once the risk-reward deteriorated.  He isn’t cut out that way, and he missed out.

But is he still missing out?  Maybe.

The one thing he would point out is his strong belief that there is a difference between a company and its stock price. He believes that when a stock price underreacts to great things, or overreacts to terrible things, this creates opportunities. He also believes that you can pay too much for a good company.  He believes this, because as mentioned above, he covered tech stocks during the tech bubble and its aftermath.  

On December 27, 1999, Microsoft closed at $53.60.  If you bought a share that day, at that price, you had to wait a little while before you broke even.  Ten years later, you were still down 36%.  Twelve years later you were down 44%.  Fifteen years later, on July 16, 2014 (assuming you reinvested all your dividends) you finally were back to where you started.  

Great company, but the price was very, very wrong in December of 1999.

But maybe MSFT was a one off.  Let’s have a look at, say, Amazon.   In December of 1999, Amazon was riding pretty high too, just like Microsoft. On the 10th of that month someone bought (and sold) Amazon at the close of $106.69 per share. Five years later you were down 64%.  It took nearly 10 years (to October 23, 2009) to get back to where you started.  

Great company, but the price was very, very wrong in December of 1999.

So, are there any great companies where the price is very, very wrong here in November of 2020?

FOOTNOTES

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DISCLAIMER

The views and opinions expressed in this post are those of the post’s author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Albert Bridge Capital, or its affiliates. This post has been provided solely for informational purposes and does not constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer or any advice or recommendation to purchase any securities or other financial instruments and may not be construed as such. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy or completeness of any information in this post or found by following any link in this post .

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A Memo to Investors
Investors? Possibly you!
Avengers Assemble!
How Did This Even Happen?
Was “Value” Just a Hot Hand Thing?
The Hot-Hand Fallacy Fallacy Fallacy?
Cue the Camouflage
The Times that Try Stock-Pickers’ Souls
A Different Game?
Heads I Win
A New Ice Age?
Grandpa Stocks
Bubblicious?
On Negative Oil and Futures Prices
In Flew Enza
COVID-19 and Equity Markets
Regulators to the Rescue?
Perspective
We Don’t Make Pizzas
Ben Graham the Growth Investor?
Not a Bad Decade
On the Impact of the FAMANGs
Europe vs the US: Is it all about sector exposures?
Behavioural Finance is Finance
America’s Decade
Known Unknowns and Share Prices
Prediction, Publicity, and Paul the Octopus
Are Company Visits Good or Bad?
Everybody Was Kung Fu Fighting?
Voting Machines and Weighing Machines
The DCF is the Randy Watson of Valuation
The Sacrilegious Diaries: Measuring the Impact of Portfolio Turnover
Passively Irrational?
Imagine No Inflation
The Sacrilegious Diaries: The Benefits of Turnover
Stay in the Game
I’m Volatility?
Woody was Right
When You Can’t Wait For Tomorrow
James Harden and Alpha
Groundhog Day and Overnight Returns
Debiasing and Alpha
Peak “Peak Car” ?
The Right Way
The First Step to Regaining Credibility
The Futility of Market Timing
Visualizing the Arithmetic of Active Management
123 Years of the Dow
Sweet Emotion?
Share Buybacks, Bad Companies, and Bear Markets
Risk and Portfolio Theory
Keeping Calm and Carrying On
Reminiscences of a Stock Operator: The Volkswagen Chronicles, Ten Years Later
We’d Rather Not Sleep
Factor Timing, Should You Try?
The Mathematics of Maintaining Bet Size
The Grandfather of Behavioural Investing
On Sexual Chocolate and Semi-Annual Reporting
Island Economies and Risk
Build a Bear?
Data Science and Alpha
We’re all Value Investors
Hunting for Alpha
Career Risk, Alpha, and Contrarian Investing
Passive Flows and Wheelbarrows
God Bless the Shorts
Sell in May, and Go Away?
Equilibrium Happens
Horses and Stocks
Peak Quality?
Bill Sharpe and Hank Aaron
Unwarrented
The Search for Excellence and the Loser’s Game
Fooled by Non-Randomness
Half Hearted Is Half Minded
Still Superman, but without the cape
122 year Dow Jones Histogram: Putting 2017 into context
Pegs, P/E'S and the Value Premium
Rick Barry and Lewis Carroll
Secular Winners and Value Investing
Robots and Alpha
The Voting Machine
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